![]() Globally some 800 million people live within 100 km of the world’s 1431 active volcanoes ( Brown et al., 2015) in developing countries alone some 722 million are exposed to volcanic hazards ( Worldbank Voices, 2017). ![]() Ongoing risk to life is shaped by hazard experience and action timescales of hazard escalation and their relationship to warning and action and the timescales over which evacuation conditions are tolerable to livelihood and asset preservation, and mental and physical wellbeing in shelters. Our global analysis shows that these pressures, when coupled with forecasting uncertainties and the rapid landscape change associated with volcanic eruptions, mean that the physical and social vulnerability of populations change significantly during the course of an eruption. Similar considerations can restrain people with previous experience of volcanic hazards and displacement, from evacuating. A dynamic, associated with pull (e.g., protecting assets, place attachment) and push factors (e.g., poor shelter conditions), can draw evacuees to return during high-risk periods. Examination of detailed data from three volcanic crises (La Soufriere, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Soufrière Hills, Montserrat and Tungurahua, Ecuador) suggests that the need to preserve livelihoods plays a strong role in protecting life. Evacuations during volcanic eruptions are protracted and this allows time for competing pressures to arise. A global survey reveals that 63% of primary volcanic deaths occur after the first week of activity, with >44% of these deaths associated with citizens returning to an established high-hazard zone. This is reflected in patterns of volcanic fatalities. Unlike many other geophysical hazard events, volcanic eruptions may be prolonged, and of variable intensity. Augustine, Trinidad and TobagoĪ forensic analysis of fatalities and displacements from recent volcanic eruptions (1986–2015) provides insights into factors that influence actions to protect life in high-risk environments. ![]() 6Seismic Research Centre, University of the West Indies, St.5British Geological Survey, Lyell Centre, Nottingham, United Kingdom.4Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.3School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.2School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom.1School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom. ![]()
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